Correct score is a lottery with better odds
Nobody predicts scorelines reliably. Anyone claiming otherwise is selling something. What you can do is find scorelines the market has priced too long relative to how a fixture is likely to unfold.
Expect to lose most of them
A good correct-score strike rate is well under one in five. The market only pays if the losing runs don't force you off the plan, which is why these belong on small, flat stakes and never in an accumulator with your bankers.
Where the value tends to sit
- 1-0 and 2-1 in low-tempo fixtures the market has priced as open
- 0-0 in derbies and first legs
- Heavier home scorelines when an away side is missing its first-choice back four